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Information technology is becoming less and less expensive, even as it grows increasingly sophisticated. We use it not just in space, but also in countless applications on Earth. In that respect our world today is completely different from what we knew in the 1960s. We can also say that humanity is changing as a species to a broader, more internally communicative and interactive one. Our society has changed, and the world is changing. I think we are on a very interesting course of history, so to speak. Perhaps it is not too much to say that we are on the edge of something new.
Technological advances have allowed us to send robots deep into space and expand our world. Does that mean human space travel will follow anytime soon? No. Right now, manned flight is not developing nearly as rapidly as information technology. What we do now is select our best people and send them into space, but, unlike with robots, their individual capabilities don't increase every year. The great Antarctic explorer Ernest Shackleton probably demonstrated greater overall capability as an explorer, I think, than any current astronaut. Cost dictates that, for the time being, it is robots that will go anywhere interesting in space. Human beings will remain users who employ robots as information-gathering tools and synthesize the findings.
The International Space Station and the Space Shuttle were conceived in the 1970s, reflecting the untested hopes and dreams of visionaries in the 1950s and 1960s. Therefore, I feel that Russia, Japan, the United States, China and others need to come up with new concepts of human space flight more appropriate to the information age, and much cheaper and more efficient than previously possible. Otherwise, continuing space research involving human flight will simply become unaffordable.
Why are robots cheaper? Because their technology is more advanced and evolving rapidly. And they don't have to be returned to the Earth. Further development of this technology will lead to lower costs, and will be furthered independently by large-scale developments going on with terrestrial information technology. The US doesn't go into national mourning over the loss of one of its exploratory robots, like with Mars Polar Lander and Mars Climate Orbiter in 1999. Indeed, that led directly to the current Mars rovers Spirit and Opportunity. The Columbia disaster, on the other hand, has delayed entirely U.S. human space flight for two years and probably has increased the costs of upcoming human flight. |
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