- What kind of specific subjects do you think should be discussed? Tachibana "First of all, which direction Japanese aerospace technology should aim towards, but before that, it should be understood what resources - funding, manpower, materials, organizations, etc. - Japan can mobilize. With that information, people can make arguments such as, 'Japan has used only this share of its GDP, and it is impossible to use the American level of share of GDP, but we should use at least the French level of share of GDP.' And then, the specific plans should be set, such as what to aim for in the near future (within 10 years), for the middle-term (30 to 50 years after that), and the long-term future (50 to 100 years). At this stage, it should be argued whether those plans will be conducted by participating in international projects, or as original Japanese projects. "People will start to realize that it is impossible to set omni-directional and far-reaching aims like America. When planning the use of national resources, it is important to sort out which technology should definitely be maintained as exclusively Japanese and which should be developed by participating in international projects. In the context of science, which has little relationship with the national strategy fundamentally, it goes without saying that each scientist should keep conducting all possible research with omni-directional and far-reaching aims." - For example, what should be done by participating international projects and what should be done with only Japanese technology? Tachibana "For example, it is impossible for Japan to establish a space station independently. On the other hand, supporting independent satellite projects is absolutely necessary. Satellite technology should be developed with our own engineering, supporting the evolution of new technology. This is indispensable, since satellite technology has become fundamental in all senses in the 21st century. Thinking about the direction of future technology, there are possibilities of a big platform comprised of multiple satellites for communications, earth surface surveillance and astronomical observation, or multiple small satellites. "Talking about a shuttle vehicle, I think that, considering the resources it has available, Japan should not consider developing manned spacecraft. It is better for Japan to develop only a cargo shuttle and depend on the international system for manned space transportation. In the near future, China looks set to launch manned spacecraft, but Japan should not be agitated because of such a thing. Today, a manned space project is not an absolute prerequisite for any space activities. Manned space flight look gorgeous at a glance, but actually they have more of a symbolic impact. After the accident of the Space Shuttle Columbia, a lot of Americans started to argue for giving up manned space flight. "What we learned with the Challenger and Columbia accidents is that the reliability of interpersonal space technology is still low. It is impossible to reach the absolutely safe area "four 9" (0.9999) safety. I mean, manned space flight technology is a risky adventure. Thinking about the Japanese social climate, which is very sensitive about human life, it seems impossible for Japanese to deal with the unlikely event of a spacecraft accident (as Americans dealt with the Challenger and Columbia accidents) when Japan starts its own development of manned spacecraft. Japanese space flight safety is less than 0.999 (probably around 0.995), and it costs too much to take that up to "four 9" (0.9999). What is the advantage of putting that much money into manned space flight research? I think nothing. It is better to forget developing Japanese manned space flight technology, and pursue orbital manned space flight technology within the international projects." |
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