Q. What do you think of Japan's recent failures in its space development?
I don't know about Japan's failures, but based on past analyses of our failures and American ones, I think that in most cases we didn't pay enough attention to reliability testing on the ground. In other words, you have to spend more time and money on simulating and testing all the processes that will happen in space. In most cases our failures resulted from the fact that we scrimped on ground-based tests and rushed our projects. In space technology, you cannot economize on the ground. To succeed on the first try in space, it's better to be late, to miss your deadline, but to do it right.
Japan's recent failures are a good opportunity to reexamine the future of its space program. Despite these setbacks, Japan has an exceptional opportunity to become the fourth country to conduct a manned space flight. Since the Columbia shuttle accident, life on the International Space Station has been supported exclusively by Russia's space transportation system. I am proud to have been involved in the development of this super-reliable rocket, formerly the R-7, now known as the manned craft Soyuz and the unmanned cargo ship Progress.
Today Russia is the only country with the technology to transport cosmonauts, goods and fuel to and from the International Space Station, but unfortunately Russia has not come out of its prolonged economic crisis, and it cannot do this on its own. The Americans, meanwhile, won't have an operational transportation system of their own for at least another year, because of their accident.
If Japan could offer its economic and technical assistance to Russia in order to increase the number of flights to the International Space Station, we would be able to kill two birds with one stone: first to send Japanese astronauts to the ISS on a Japanese-owned Soyuz ship, and also to build the ship in Japan, with the addition of Japanese technology that would make it even more reliable and comfortable. With our experience, a Japanese version of the Soyuz could be built very quickly. We designed and built the first manned spacecraft, Vostok, from scratch in only two years. If Japan took advantage of that experience, it would become the fourth country to conduct manned space flights.
If this were to happen, Japan and Russia could jointly supply the International Space Station. Japan would learn a lot from this experience - knowledge that could be applied to future interplanetary flights, the construction of a lunar base, etc.
Ten years ago I bought a Japanese TV set. I still have it, once it broke, and I called a repairman. He came, he looked at it, and he hit it with his fist. One knock with his Russian fist on the Japanese TV, and it was working fine again. For this he charged me 101 rubles. I was indignant! "How can you charge me so much for just one knock?" And he said, "For the knock I charge you only one ruble. The 100 rubles are for knowing where to hit it." This is a joke, but it would be better to take advantage of our knowledge and experience than to continue random development.
Q. Could you tell us how this joint development of the Soyuz spacecraft would work?
If the leaders of our two countries had the will to do this, our scientists and engineers would sit down at the table and quickly come to an agreement. It's not difficult to find a common language. If I were a leader of Japan's space organization, I send Japanese engineers to work in Russia. They would learn the technology, and at the same time start working on a Japanese version of the Progress supply ship. This could be built in Japan or here, we could decide what makes more sense. What's more important is not where the metal comes from, but the people, the specialists. They have to know what needs to be done and how.
I have chaired a great number of accident investigation commissions, and as a rule we always found that the cause was not faulty science or technology by itself, but people who did not always understand each other. So political questions are more important here than scientific ones. The technology, with Japan's high level of scientific development, would not pose a problem at all, but there needs to be political will. And then we can conduct a Japanese-Russian expedition on a jointly created Soyuz. If we did this together, Japan would be able to fly to the International Space Station in a few years. But if Japan did this on its own, it would take at least 15 years, judging from China's experience.
For this to happen, the Japanese have to decide that they need this and ask Russia for help. There is a need for a new version of Soyuz, because it needs to carry more cargo and people. Today it's a three-seater. We can build one that can house four, maybe even six people. If Japan contributes its resources we can do this faster than the Americans which are building a new spacecraft, and are planning to launch in 2014. But I expect that a Russia-Japan joint spaceship will materialize earlier than that.
On the other hand, the Europeans are developing their own supply ship for the International Space Station, in cooperation with us. They are trying to base it on our Progress supply ship, but their work is going very slowly.
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